The NFL Draft is my favorite sports-related event.
I used to put together my very own draft board, filled with players I felt the Patriots should select. I DON’T do this anymore, but I’m still fascinated by the process.
To some degree, the draft is just a numbers game. The results are almost so random that the sole objective could be maximizing the number of selections. A team with nine selections is more likely to hit on five players than a team with just six selections.
Boosting the number of selections helps navigate the complexity of projecting players. It’s unbelievably complicated to predict how players will fit into a system. A guy can have the measurables, intangibles, the right college system…and still not work out at the pro level.
So every pick comes with some sort of risk. Drafting receivers and quarterbacks seems to come with lots of risk. Lineman, at the very least, can be moved around. A guy who doesn’t work at tackle might end up as a guard. Defensive players can have some value on special teams. But if a highly touted quarterback doesn’t work? Maybe he can be a decent backup.
In the end, the draft is just like any job selection process. There’s no way to tell a prospect will work in a new place. The success or failure of a new hire might be a coin flip. In the draft, at least, managers have the chance to take chances, and let the aggregate selection numbers work for them.